Programmatic on CTV: As Smart as We Think?
On the surface, Connected TV seems like the perfect solution. It combines the high attention of the big screen with the targeting precision of programmatic—a best-of-both-worlds scenario that marketers have long hoped for. And that’s exactly how it’s being sold. But while CTV holds enormous promise and deserves our enthusiasm, it’s important not to get swept away by the hype. Understanding its current limitations is key to unlocking its full potential, sustainably and effectively.
It’s been more than a decade since the phrase “Streaming Wars” first captured the shifting power dynamics in the media. Originally coined to describe the growing competition among digital platforms, the term still resonates today as content distribution continues to evolve at a breakneck pace. Despite early predictions, traditional media didn’t disappear. Instead, it fragmented—first slowly, then all at once—into a sprawling ecosystem where legacy broadcasters, tech giants, and upstarts all compete for audience attention. The race has only intensified, and the market continues to grow. According to Grand View Research, the global video streaming market is expected to shoot from the current 106.8 billion USD to upwards of 416.8 billion USD, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.5%. [1]
For marketers, this growing complexity isn’t necessarily a problem. Following consumer behavior across platforms, devices, and environments is part of the job. In fact, programmatic advertising on web and mobile platforms has set a standard for scalability and measurability. These channels are powered by vast streams of metadata from personal devices, enabling efficient targeting, real-time optimization, and performance tracking. IAB’s Content 1.0, for example, was released in 2011, marking a global initiative to unify content description across the internet. [2]
Connected TV, however, is a different challenge entirely.
Unlike smartphones or laptops, CTV devices are often shared among multiple people, making individual-level targeting more difficult. At the same time, CTV offers marketers access to premium, highly engaging environments—where viewers are leaned-in and more receptive to long-form content. When properly executed, these campaigns can deliver memorable brand experiences that go beyond the limitations of short-form or scroll-based media.
Of course, fragmentation remains a real challenge. Publishers are free to categorize content however they choose, which complicates segmentation and limits standardization. Tools like Automatic Content Recognition (ACR) attempt to fill the gap but bring their own issues—often relying on opaque, delayed, and sometimes intrusive methods.
Even so, the CTV ecosystem is evolving. Advances in contextual classification and better integrations at the SSP level are helping advertisers gain more control. As transparency tools improve, smarter and more informed optimization becomes possible.
Measurement, on the other hand, remains an uneven playing field. CTV lacks the kind of universal tracking infrastructure found in browser-based environments. That makes campaign verification, tagging, and real-time attribution far more difficult to execute consistently.
All things considered, the market is unfazed.
GroupM’s mid-year forecast pegged global CTV ad revenue at $25.9 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 10.4% through 2028. [3] This reflects growing interest from brands eager to align with the rise of ad-supported streaming and the shift away from linear TV.
Supporting this growth, Deloitte reports that two-thirds of consumers in developed markets now use at least one AVOD platform monthly—a 5% increase year over year. [4] The adoption of these ad-funded models reflects growing consumer openness to content monetized through advertising.
That said, visibility remains a major gap. According to a study by DoubleVerify and IAB Europe, only 30% of advertisers and publishers report full transparency into where their CTV ads run. Even more troubling, 27% rarely or never know whether placements meet brand safety standards. [5] Most CTV buys are still conducted through Programmatic Guaranteed or Private Marketplaces—limiting the scale and flexibility advertisers are accustomed to. [6]
Nonetheless, change is coming. Buyers who push for more accountability are helping accelerate the adoption of better practices—laying the groundwork for a more interoperable future.
On the performance side, signs are promising. According to Next TV, CTV ads tend to hold viewer attention more effectively than other digital video formats. [7] Still, this may have more to do with today’s lower competition and ad density than any intrinsic property of the format. Findings from SiriusXM Media add nuance, showing that CTV performance increases when paired with complementary channels like digital audio. [8]
Thinking ahead.
CTV’s future is undeniably bright, but sustainable success depends on more than its current momentum. To reach its full potential, the industry must move toward a more open, accountable, and scalable ecosystem. That includes reducing reliance on proprietary systems, embracing shared measurement frameworks, and building tools that empower advertisers to manage complexity with precision.
Among the most promising developments is the advancement of contextual intelligence. With third-party identifiers on the decline and household-level data proving limited, content-level understanding becomes essential. Contextual targeting offers a privacy-compliant path forward—especially in environments where user-level data is scarce or unavailable.
That said, video-based contextual tools are still playing catch-up. While text environments have benefited from years of semantic refinement, video content remains far harder to categorize with accuracy. Existing solutions like ACR and metadata scraping provide some visibility, but lack the consistency and granularity required for effective media planning. This is a clear area for innovation.
Building lasting trust in CTV also depends on improving transparency. Without shared standards for classification, verification, and performance, advertisers are left with fragmented views and limited control. Industry efforts from IAB Tech Lab and independent measurement providers are encouraging, but broader adoption remains essential.
Unlocking the full potential of CTV will take more than optimism—it demands smart strategy, real visibility, and solutions that deliver clarity around what’s actually being bought and where it's being delivered.
Contextual targeting, while not without its limitations, represents a step in the right direction. Unlike black-box third-party audiences, it offers visibility into what’s driving targeting decisions. A recent Adlook study found that third-party demographic segments were inaccurate up to 43% of the time—meaning nearly half of impressions were mistargeted. [9] With contextual, advertisers may still need refinement, but at least they know what they’re working with—creating a foundation for optimization, learning, and long-term results.
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